(2012) Narrative as a root metaphor for political psychology. Methods Document Manual for Con ict Analysis. A Systematic Approach to Effective Conflict Management for Program Advances in Group Decision and Negotiation, vol 4. Content and actors, dynamics and structures are also considered (, Actor or stakeholder mapping can be a useful tool to get a graphic snapshot of actors relative power in the conflict, their relationships and the conflict issues between them. Proximate causes of conflict (also called immediate causes) are more recent causes that change more quickly, that can accentuate structural causes and that lead to an escalation of violent conflict. Montville, J. London: Routledge. Journal of International Studies, 36(3): 623640. Publication Type: 1038 - 1053. Comput Sci 34(11):129131, Sun BZ, Chen XT, Zhang LY, Ma WM (2020) Three-way decision making approach to conflict analysis and resolution using probabilistic rough set over two universes. Ryan, S. (2009) Conflict Transformation: Reason to be Modest. (1986) Turning point decisions: A cognitive-dissonance analysis of conflict reduction in Israel-West German relations. Dynamics: What are the current conflict dynamics/trends? The Guide finds weak evidence for some commonly stated influencing factors (e.g. New York: St. Martins Press. Conflict is a universal phenomenon in political, economic, military, cultural, and other fields. Burton, J. In: Sandole, D., Byrne, S., Sandole-Staroste, I. and Senehi, J. eds. What information are they meant to produce, and how can they be used to inform decisions? Conflict analysis - Wikipedia Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press. 1. In: Bar-Siman-Tov, Yaacov (ed.) But as cracks emerged across Russian society and within the elite over the war, Prigozhin has been one of the most outspoken critics, alienating his adversaries in Russias defense ministry. Bar-Tal, D. (2000) From intractable conflict through conflict resolution to reconciliation. Coleman, P. T. (2006) Intractable Conflict. London and New York: Routledge. Thousand Oaks: Sage Publications. Group Decis Negotiation 14(6):481500, Obeidi A, Kilgour DM, Hipel KW (2009a) Perceptual graph model systems. Lederach, J. P. (2005) The Moral Imagination. Appl Intell 53, 1069910714 (2023). Cambridge and London: Harvard University (Sixteenth printing 1997). The overarching question for the conflict profile is what is the context that shapes conflict? Dynamics result from the interaction of the conflict profile, actors and causes, and they can be triggered by events (FEWER et al., 2004: 5) (see Figure 5below). It seeks to identify opportunities for managing or resolving disputes without recourse to violent action. (e.g. While definitions vary, and it is a contested concept, this Topic Guide understands the political settlement as the informal and formal processes, agreements, and practices that help consolidate politics, rather than violence, as a means for dealing with disagreements about interests, ideas and the distribution and use of power (Laws & Leftwich, 2014: 1). The literature widely uses the same concepts to describe conflicts actors, causes, dynamics, triggers and scenarios. Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative, The Palgrave Handbook of Global Political Psychology, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-137-29118-9_9, Palgrave Studies in Political Psychology Series, Political Science and International Studies (R0). Structural causes of conflict (also called root causes or underlying causes) are long-term or systemic causes of violent conflict that have become built into the norms, structures and policies of a society. Brecher, M. (1972) The Foreign Policy System of Israel. Ripley, B. Conflict analysis, learning from practice - Rhodes - Conflict Comput Math Appl 57:15471553, Article A Study of Bloody Conflict. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, Howard N (1999) Confrontation analysis: how to win operations other than war. Google Scholar, Harary F, Ross IC (1957) A procedure for clique detection using the group matrix Sociometry. In areas where free articulation of opinion might entail personal security risks for staff, first hand information cannot be . Conflict Analysis and Resolution as a Field: Core Concepts and Issues (2010). Field-deployable methods to check food authenticity at the point of . Resources for research in conflict resolution, peace operations, armed conflict, and human security. Figure 1: Timeline of conflict events in Liberia (1977-2011). Isotopic and elemental analysis for food authenticity and verification of production and geographical origin. The pyramid graphic tool is used to examine the different levels of stakeholders in a conflict starting with key conflict actors at the top level (adapted from Lederach, in Fisher et al., 2000: 33-4). The Handbook on Conflict Resolution: Theory and Practice (2nd edition). In: Deutsch, M., Coleman, P. and Marcus, E. eds. Diplomacy in Theory and Practice. IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern 9(12):805816, CrossRef Conflict analysis is the systematic study of the profile, causes, actors, and dynamics of conflict (seeSection 2). In: Ganter B, Godin R (eds) ICFCA 2005, LNAI, vol 3403. J Softw 18(9):21742182, Qi JJ, Wei L, Yao YY (2014) Three-way formal concept analysis. Kriesberg, L. (1989) Transforming Conflicts in the Middle East and Central Europe. Conict analysis can entail: 1) verifying if one is dealing with a conict, 2) determining the conict system boundaries, with the option of revising these later on, 3) using conict analysis tools (presented below) to focus on certain aspects of the conict and organize information. elections, reform processes, economic growth, inequality, employment, social groups and composition, demographics and resource exploitation) Actors: Who are the actors that influence conflict? The overarching question here is what are the current conflict dynamics/trends? Who performs conflict analysis, and under what kinds of circumstances? Auerbach, Y. McDonald, J. W. and Bendahmane, D. B. eds. Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press. It visualises how structural and dynamic factors interact to lead to conflict (see Figure 4) (. Clark, J. N. (2008) The three Rs: Retributive justice, restorative justice, and reconciliation. [33] Ramanna S., Conflict Analysis in the Framework of Rough Sets and Granular Computing, Handbook of Granular Computing, 2008, pp. Broome, B. Representatives of governments, intergovernmental organizations, NGOs, or private sector firms can use this book as a field guide in zones of conflict. IEEE Trans Fuzzy Syst 9(4):608623, Li KW, Kilgour DM, Hipel KW (2004) Status quo analysis of the flathead river conflict. The Handbook on Conflict Resolution: Theory and Practice (2nd edition). The Kent Journal of International Relations, 9(2): 7185. First, it integrates theoretical and practical knowledge in order to simplify concepts without losing important details. Political Psychology, 30(5): 721754. (1950) Proc Nat Acad Sci 36:4849, von Neumann J, Morgenstern O (1944) Theory of games and economic behavior. elections, economic crisis, a natural disaster, etc.). Stein, J. G. (1996) Image, Identity, and Conflict Resolution. London: Sage Publications. The global security environment is . Land | Free Full-Text | Conflict Analysis of Physical Industrial Land Z. eds. In: Deutsch, M., Coleman, P. and Marcus, E. eds. Or they can be framed around story narratives for example in an analysis about prospective elections in Sierra Leone, three scenarios were presented: Scenario 1: election violence; Scenario 2: regional stalemate; Scenario 3: youth, drugs and violence (Adolfo, 2010: 49). The first part of this book examines the strategic, socioeconomic, psychological, and cultural dimensions of violent conflict. (1987) Conflict Resolution: Track Two Diplomacy. Integrating conflict sensitivity into sectoral approaches. Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout, Brams SJ (1994) Theory of moves. Applying the tools to focus on certain exhibitories of conflict. In: Neack, L., Hey, J. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass Publishers. Google Scholar, Jose M, Caballero B, Medina J, Ramirez-Poussa E, Slezak D (2020) Rough-set-driven approach for attribute reduction in fuzzy formal concept analysis. Discrete App Math 57: 33003313, Xu H, Kilgour DM, Hipel KW (2010) Matrix representation of conflict resolution in multiple-decision-maker graph models with preference uncertainty. How is the perspective on conflict analysis in this volume distinctive? In such studies, structured focused comparison and/or single case studies methods are frequently used not only for theory advancement of conflict analysis, but also for generic and normative prescriptions. J Glob Optim 4:301328, Pawlak Z (1998) An inquiry into anatomy of conflicts. Australian Journal of International Relations, 15(2): 249264. Download chapter PDF The idea is that, for a political settlement to be stable and non-violent, it needs to be inclusive of 1) the elites that have the power to disrupt peace and, some argue, also 2) wider societal groups that are currently marginalised from power (e.g. Theory and Practice. The onion graphic tool is used to examine actors public positions (the outer layer), interests (the middle layer) and needs (inner layer) (Fisher et al., 2000: 27) (see Figure 3). In: Aggestam, K. and Magnus Jerneck, M. eds. Cambridge: Polity Press. Figure 3 shows the stress-strain curves of the samples in the conventional triaxial compression test. Formal concept analysis is an effective data analysis method which can be used for modeling conflict situations in the presence of uncertainty. Second, it highlights the need to analyze the causes of peace in addition to the causes of war. Conflict analysis itself presents an intervention in the conflict, and therefore involves the risk of aggravating existing tensions. Knowl-Based Syst 91:143151, Ramanna S, Peters J, Skowron A (2007) Approaches to conflict dynamics based on rough sets. A data collection and analysis process has potential for exacerbating . PDF Guide to: CONFLICT ANALYSIS - UNICEF In: Sandole, D., Byrne, S., Sandole-Staroste, I. and Senehi, J. eds. Israeli Identity, Thick Recognition and Conflict Transformation, Lund, Media-Tryck. By: Core elements of conflict analysis - GSDRC 29 conflict management techniques (that actually resolve issues!) Political Psychology, 7(3): 533550. Theory Decis 57: 345365, Zeng DZ, Fang L, Hipel KW, Kilgour DM (2006) Generalized metarationalities in the graph model for conflict resolution. San Francisco: Jossey Bass. Special Issue of the IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management on the topic of Technology Management in the Services Industries, Hipel KW, Obeidi A, Fang L, Kilgour DM (2009) Sustainable environmental management from a system of systems perspective. Schelling, T. C. (1960) The Strategy of Conflict. Int J Gen Syst 43(2):105134, Pollandt S (1997) Fuzzy-Begriffe: formale begriffsanalyse unscharfer daten. The forcefield analysis graphic tool is used to examine the different forces influencing a conflict (Fisher et al., 2000: 301). It is a common misconception that conflict analysis is an arcane art practiced only by intelligence experts and strategic forecasters, or that it is time-consuming and requires specialized knowledge. The broad focus of conflict analysis is also reflected in the . The broad focus of conflict analysis is also reflected in the multitude of methodological approaches which are utilised (see, e.g., Druckman, 2005). Conflict Analysis Field Guide GPPAC 2017 4 Acknowledgements Acknowledgements This Conflict Analysis Field Guide is a product of GPPAC's Preventive Action Working Group. Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10489-022-04051-9, access via Int J Approx Reason 139:1227, Yu C, Yang JH, Yang DB, Ma XH, Min HC (2015) An improved conflicting evidence combination approach based on a new supporting probability distance. Palgrave Studies in Political Psychology Series. Heather Ashby, Ph.D.; Mary Glantz, Ph.D. Before Vladimir Putin launched his illegal war on Ukraine, the Russian-funded paramilitary Wagner Group was an infamous, shadowy tool of Moscows foreign policy, advancing its objectives in the Middle East and Africa. Plotting a graph of events gives a sense of time, frequency, trends and stages of the conflict (see Figure 1). Conflict Analysis and Resolution. how the conflict actors, causes and profile interact. In: Sandole, D., Byrne, S., Sandole-Staroste, I. and Senehi, J. eds. A. K. and Haney, P. J. eds. Information Processing, Cognition, and Perception in Foreign Policy Decisionmaking. London and New York: Routledge. methods can be found in practical use by policy and decision-makers at various levels in various. Learning Conflict Resolution in the Post-Cold War Era. International Workshop on Rough Sets, Fuzzy Sets, Data Mining, and Granular-Soft Computing. The greed and grievance model makes lists of the conflict causes according to whether they relate to greed or grievance (Vaux, 2015: 4). Google Scholar, Fraser NM, Hipel KW (1984) Conflict analysis: models and resolutions. Such tools can provide a valuable first cut at the data, helping identify regions at greatest risk of conflict. Inf Sci (NY) 346347:275285, Wille R (1982) Restructuring lattice theory: an approach based on hierarchies of concepts, ordered sets. This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution. In: Sandole, D., Byrne, S., Sandole-Staroste, I. and Senehi, J. eds. The idea of the temperament of a conflict relates to how people are transformed by a conflict or the energy of a conflict (Mason & Rychard, 2005). INFOR 43(3):247270, Obeidi A, Hipel KW, Kilgour DM (2002) Canadian bulk water exports: analyzing the sun belt conflict using the graph model for conflict resolution. Ultimately, these are political issues, involving power, contestation between actors and shaping of institutions for the benefit of some (and at the expense of others). Lanham: Lexington Books. These can be framed as best-case, middle-case, worst-case, most-likely-case or status-quo scenarios the normative framing of what is best will depend on the object of study and the perspective of the researcher (e.g. Other studies aim for policy relevance and to bridge the theory-practice divide (Fisher, 2009). Correspondence to The Glasl model conceptualises escalation as a downward movement, where conflict parties get sucked into the conflict dynamics (Mason & Rychard, 2005). (eds.) Springer, Dordrecht. Springer-Verlag, Berlin/Heidelberg, pp 268283, Belohlavek R, Vychodil V (2005) Reducing the size of fuzzy concept lattices by hedges. Expert Syst Appl 42(12):51395149, Zhang WX, Wei L, Qi JJ (2005) Attribute reduction of concept lattice theory and method. Reconciliation, Justice, and Co-existence. Conflict analysis is a structured inquiry into the causes and potential direction of a conflict. However, feminist and womens peace organizations have long recognized that for engagement on this issue to be meaningful, it cannot treat gender as a synonym for women. You should complete one triangle for each of the major groups involved in the conflict. Handbook of Conflict Analysis and Resolution. Articles: ABC of conflict analysis - Tearfund Learn London and New York: Routledge. Think tanks and research institutes also contribute practical knowledge about conflict through their research. Monroe, K., Chiu, W., Martin, A. and Portman, B. Inf Sci 507:809822, Sun BZ, Ma WM (2014) Soft fuzzy rough sets and its application in decision making. Conflict analysis tools - GSDRC PubMedGoogle Scholar, Department of Political Science, Huron University College, Canada, Department of Political Science, Lund University, Sweden, Department of Politics, University of Surrey, UK, Graduate School of Social and Behavioural Sciences, Leiden University, The Netherlands, Aggestam, K. (2014). Conventionally, conflict could be defined as a dispute, argute, or pleading that mostly leads to a legal procedure, such as arbitration, mediation, or filing a suit. Menkel-Meadow, C. (2007) Restorative justice: What is it and does it work? Georgetown University Law Center, Annual Review of Law and Social Science, 3: 161187. whether the objective is stability or sustainable peace). Kinnvall, C. (2004) Globalization and religious nationalism: Self, identity, and the search for ontological security. In: Vasquez, J. Actors fight over issues, and conflicts are complex and multi-causal, therefore it is useful to distinguish between different types of causes, influencing factors, and outcomes, and to differentiate the sources of tensions or divisions that affect large or small numbers of people at the local, subnational, national, regional and international levels (DFID, 2015). 4.4 Scaling to single cell data. IEEE Trans on Syst Man Cybern - Part A: Syst Hum 39(1):96108, Xu H, Hipel KW, Kilgour DM (2009b) Multiple levels of preference in interactive strategic decisions. Electronics | Free Full-Text | A Dynamic Conflict Analysis Method for Vaux, T. (2015). Conflict analysis toolkits do not include explicit categories to analyse violent extremism, but where relevant it will emerge through analysis of the conflict actors, causes and dynamics. In: Sandole, D. J. Using one of three visual evaluation methods, you can identify . Springer, Heidelberg, pp 169186, MATH Paradigms. Practical applications of strategic conflict analysis. Tidwell, A. C. (1998) Conflict Resolved? This chapter reviews the evolution of conflict analysis practices used by community organizations, international NGOs, donor countries, and even military agencies. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, Bryant JW (2003) The Six Dilemmas of collaboration. Conflict analysis focuses on discovering the relationship between agents involved in a dispute and the strategy to resolve the conflicts. This simple, three-step formula for conflict resolution works well . (2009) The reconciliation pyramid A narrative-based framework for analyzing identity conflicts. In: IEEE Int Conf Syst Man Cybern Hawaii, pp 11261131, Obeidi A, Hipel KW, Kilgour DM (2005b) The role of emotions in envisioning outcomes in conflict analysis. When used collaboratively, the analytical tools discussed in this volume can help practitioners develop a common vocabulary and a shared strategic narrative that can facilitate better coordination of efforts by diverse organizations. Fisher, S., Ibrahim Abdi, D., Ludin, J., Smith, R., Williams, S., Williams, S. (2000). (2012) Ontological dissonance, clashing identities, and Israels unilateral steps towards the Palestinians. Lebow, N. R. (1981) Between Peace and War: The Nature of International Crisis. Am Sociol Assoc 20:205215, Hao F, Yang YX, Min GY, Loia V (2021) Incremental construction of three-way concept lattice for knowledge discovery in social networks. Artif Intell Rev 41:6780, Sun BZ, Ma WM (2015) Rough approximation of a preference relation by multi-decision dominance for a multi-agent conflict analysis problem. The literature has seen an increasing focus on understanding the processes by means of which conflict issues become so salient that leaders mobilise around them, and identifying transition opportunities that may help break cycles of violence and state fragility, rather than on, as before, developing typologies of issues that cause conflict (World Bank, 2011; Jabri, 1996). This is a preview of subscription content, access via Charlottesville: Pitchstone Publishing. It is thus important to adopt a chronological, contextual and dynamic approach when engaging in analysis to be able to understand how the conflict has developed over time. The military-supervised Border Guard Force in the area, a partner of the syndicates, responds with threats to shut down cross-border trade. (2004); Conflict Sensitivity Consortium (2012); CDA Collaborative (2013); DFID (2015); Mason & Rychard (2005). Sources: Fisher et al. Nesbitt-Larking, P. and Kinnvall, C. (2012) The discursive frames of political psychology. By using this site you indicate agreement with the use of cookies. After a review of these methods, the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution, which stands out for the flexibility of its models and the breadth of its analysis, is described in detail. Get an insight into how we are governed and organised. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall, Inc. Rothman, J. A., Turner Johnson, J., Jaffe, S. and Stamato, L. eds. London: Routledge. (1995) Cognition, Culture, and Bureaucratic Politics. Wang, L., Pei, Z. Manual for Conflict Analysis Methods Document Summary This methodology tool has been developed to provide Sida with practical guidance on how to analyse violent conflicts in order to understand better how development co-operation is affected by and can affect potential or ongoing violent conflicts. It also discusses quantitative tools for conflict risk assessment and early warning, such as the Failed States Index and the Peace and Conflict Instability Ledger. This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution. In: Kriesberg, L., Northrup, T. A. and Thorson, S. J. eds. The original causes of conflict may not be the same factors that sustain war for example conflict may have political and social motivations but be prolonged by economic motivations, creating disincentives for peace (Berdal & Keen, 1997). J Oper Res Soc 56: 699707, Nash J. Equilibrium points in n-person games. Wiley, Chichester, Fang L, Hipel KW, Kilgour DM (1993) Interactive decision making: The graph model for conflict resolution. Zheng Pei. London and New York: Routledge. To better analyze and solve the conflict, many effective analysis models and methods have been introduced. Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content: Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article. The results of conflict analysis provide a basis to direct future action considering conflicts as dynamic mediums, which puts up any intervention to become a part of conflict context. Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content: Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article. Wiley, New York NY, Fraser NM, Hipel KW (1979) Solving complex conflicts. In: Bar-Siman-Tov, Y. ed. Political Psychology, 30(2): 291318. (Internal document). Syst Eng 11(4):343359, Inohara T, Hipel KW, Walker S (2007) Conflict analysis approaches for investigating attitudes and misperceptions in the war of 1812.
